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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?

The market puts it at 1.8% — a very long shot — on Polymarket, as of Nov 1, 21:14 UTC. It's down 3.6 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 1.8% ▼ 3.6 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 1, 21:14 UTC
  • Chance of yes 1.8% −3.6
Traded today$23K
Traded in all$206K
Yes, 7 days−2.6 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 25Nov 12%

Oct 25: 4.5% · Oct 26: 7% · Oct 27: 6.5% · Oct 28: 6.5% · Oct 29: 7% · Oct 30: 6.5% · Oct 31: 5.5% · Nov 1: 1.9%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Turkey officially announces early presidential elections to occur before the currently scheduled 2028 Turkish presidential election, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying announcement requires an official public announcement by the Turkish government, the Presidency of Turkey, the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, or the Supreme Election Council of Turkey (YSK) establishing, approving, scheduling, or formally initiating a presidential election to occur before the currently scheduled 2028 election. Announcements of discussions, proposals, negotiations, speculation, or calls for early elections by politicians, parties, media, or commentators, without official action to schedule or initiate such elections, will not qualify. If early presidential elections are officially announced before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the elections are later postponed, canceled, or ultimately held. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Turkish government authorities or the Supreme Election Council of Turkey (YSK); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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