The odds
as of Oct 16, 06:37 UTC- Chance of yes 13% +5.5
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$133K
Yes, 7 days+5.3 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 9: 7.5% · Oct 10: 7.4% · Oct 11: 7.3% · Oct 12: 7.3% · Oct 13: 7.3% · Oct 14: 7.3% · Oct 15: 7.3% · Oct 16: 13%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
See it on Polymarket ↗