The odds
as of Oct 5, 10:30 UTC- June 30, 2027 39% +3
- December 31 7.5% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$4.2M
Favourite, 7 days−2 pts
June 30, 2027, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 41% · Sep 29: 41% · Sep 30: 39% · Oct 1: 30% · Oct 2: 38% · Oct 3: 37% · Oct 4: 36% · Oct 5: 39%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.
Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
See it on Polymarket ↗