The odds
as of Oct 6, 08:34 UTC- Chance of yes 12% +4
Traded today$6K
Traded in all$770K
Yes, 7 days+2.5 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 29: 8.5% · Sep 30: 8.5% · Oct 1: 8.5% · Oct 2: 8.5% · Oct 3: 7.5% · Oct 4: 7.5% · Oct 5: 7.5% · Oct 6: 12%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 5, 9:00 PM ET, and May 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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