The odds
as of Oct 12, 19:22 UTC- Chance of yes 12% +1.4
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$326K
Yes, 7 days−0.7 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 5: 13% · Oct 6: 13% · Oct 7: 13% · Oct 8: 13% · Oct 9: 13% · Oct 10: 12% · Oct 11: 11% · Oct 12: 12%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
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