Moving
Odell Beckham Jr. Next Team Minnesota 95% ▲+59Preston vs Grubor Janae Preston 95% ▲+46Avai vs Londrina Avai 89% ▲+45Los Angeles D vs Atlanta: First 5 Innings Tie 61% ▲+44Kaji vs Adams Haruka Kaji 92% ▲+43The Social Reckoning · Rotten Tomatoes score Above 55 87% ▲+38Maryville University vs. Disguised Maryville University 64% ▲+34Los Angeles D vs Atlanta: Outs Recorded Tyler Mahle: 15+ 81% ▲+33Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut? 1480+ 64% ▲+31Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI… October 31 64% ▲+28Which company has #1 AI model end of November? (St… Google 28% ▼−27Critics Choice Awards: Best Adapted Screenplay La Bola Negra 11% ▼−27Republican House odds hit __ by October 31? ↓ 7% 53% ▼−26Remo vs Gremio Remo 16% ▼−25
PolymarketCloses October 31, 2026

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Kaitlan Collins leads at 96% (about 10 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 7, 23:22 UTC. It's down 4 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 7, 23:22 UTC
  • Kaitlan Collins 96% −4
  • Barack Obama 95% −1.4
  • Kathy Hochul 94% −2.5
  • J.B. Pritzker 86% +4.5
  • Kamala Harris 84% +14
  • Jon Ossoff 75% −1.7
  • Hakeem Jeffries 75% −2.5
  • Marjorie Taylor Greene 73% +27

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$10K
Traded in all$69K
Favourite, 7 days+22 pts

Kaitlan Collins, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 1Oct 796%

Oct 1: 71% · Oct 2: 40% · Oct 3: 67% · Oct 4: >99% · Oct 5: >99% · Oct 6: >99% · Oct 7: 96%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
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