The odds
as of Oct 24, 17:19 UTC- Chance of yes 3% —
Traded today$746
Traded in all$81K
Yes, 7 days−0.5 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 17: 3.5% · Oct 18: 3.4% · Oct 19: 3.4% · Oct 20: 3.3% · Oct 21: 3.3% · Oct 22: 3.2% · Oct 23: 3.2% · Oct 24: 3%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Denmark between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Danish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Royal Danish Navy and other branches of the Danish Armed Forces are considered part of Denmark’s military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
See it on Polymarket ↗