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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

The market puts it at 13% — a long shot, about one in 8 — on Polymarket, as of Oct 17, 11:20 UTC. It's down 0.5 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 13% ▼ 0.5 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 17, 11:20 UTC
  • Chance of yes 13% −0.5
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$444K
Yes, 7 days+0.5 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 9Oct 1713%

Oct 10: 12% · Oct 11: 12% · Oct 12: 12% · Oct 13: 14% · Oct 14: 14% · Oct 15: 14% · Oct 16: 12% · Oct 17: 13%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. Only deals which are officially announced by both parties will qualify . Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
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