Moving
Alaska diesel prices in Oct 2026 Above $6.4000 82% ▲+79Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...? October 31 90% ▲+78Texas Senate margin of victory James Talarico, 2+ pts 44% ▼−53Verizon postpaid phone net additions in Q3 Above 25 thousand 94% ▲+48Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? October 31 22% ▼−45#1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of … Housewife 71% ▲+43Rybakina vs Kawa Elena Rybakina 92% ▲+41Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October? Meta 58% ▲+40Oscars 2027: Best Live Action Short Film Nominations Meeting Your Maker 54% ▲+40Hunter / Tjen vs Haverlag / Tagger Storm Hunter / Janice Tjen 88% ▲+38What will Anthropic's public ticker be? $ANT 59% ▲+37Medvedev vs Atmane Daniil Medvedev 85% ▲+35Wisconsin total milk production in 2026 Above 33.25 billion pounds 92% ▲+33Will Ukraine target Moscow on...? October 23 96% ▲+32
PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

The market puts it at 2.4% — a very long shot — on Polymarket, as of Oct 23, 07:30 UTC.

Yes 2.4%

The odds

as of Oct 23, 07:30 UTC
  • Chance of yes 2.4% —
Traded today$563
Traded in all$181K
Yes, 7 daysunch

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 15Oct 232%

Oct 16: 2.6% · Oct 17: 2.6% · Oct 18: 2.7% · Oct 19: 2.6% · Oct 20: 2.6% · Oct 21: 2.6% · Oct 22: 2.7% · Oct 23: 2.4%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗

World

More markets like this

All →