The odds
as of Oct 23, 07:30 UTC- Chance of yes 2.4% —
Traded today$563
Traded in all$181K
Yes, 7 daysunch
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 16: 2.6% · Oct 17: 2.6% · Oct 18: 2.7% · Oct 19: 2.6% · Oct 20: 2.6% · Oct 21: 2.6% · Oct 22: 2.7% · Oct 23: 2.4%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗