Moving
Next President of Kosovo? Justina Pula 66% ▲+630 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..? Yes 97% ▲+63Tossup Senate Race Combo: which states will Democr… Iowa 54% ▲+53Who will Trump speak to by October 31? Vladimir Putin 94% ▲+45Pro Baseball ALCS Qualifiers New York Y 18% ▼−43Odell Beckham Jr. Next Team Retires / No Team 10% ▼−39Maestrelli vs Tarvet Francesco Maestrelli 63% ▲+37Henning vs Kasnikowski Philip Henning 77% ▲+33María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...? December 31 65% ▲+28Bini vs Alvarado Patricio Alvarado 78% ▲+28The Social Reckoning · Rotten Tomatoes score Above 55 47% ▼−26Egribel vs Werner Caroline Werner 93% ▲+25Series Winner: Chicago WS vs Cleveland Chicago WS 86% ▲+25Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt? Ulrich Siegmund 87% ▲+25
PolymarketCloses October 30, 2026

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

≥3.0% leads at 73% (about 7 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 6, 22:25 UTC. It's up 6 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 6, 22:25 UTC
  • ≥3.0% 73% +6
  • 2.5–3.0% 15% +2.5
  • 2.0–2.5% 10% −0.5
  • 0.5–1.0% 2.2% —
  • 1.0–1.5% 1.8% —
  • <0.5% 1.1% —
  • 1.5–2.0% <1% −0.5
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$50K
Favourite, 7 days+3 pts

≥3.0%, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 28Oct 673%

Sep 29: 70% · Sep 30: 71% · Oct 1: 73% · Oct 2: 63% · Oct 3: 66% · Oct 4: 66% · Oct 5: 67% · Oct 6: 73%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
See it on Polymarket ↗

Economy

More markets like this

All →