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PolymarketCloses August 1, 2027

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

The market puts it at 35% — about 3 in ten — on Polymarket, as of Oct 9, 11:24 UTC. It's up 6 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 35% ▲ 6 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 9, 11:24 UTC
  • Chance of yes 35% +6
Traded today$6K
Traded in all$462K
Yes, 7 days+5 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 1Oct 935%

Oct 2: 30% · Oct 3: 28% · Oct 4: 28% · Oct 5: 28% · Oct 6: 28% · Oct 7: 28% · Oct 8: 28% · Oct 9: 35%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No". If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No". If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
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