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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of December?

Google leads at 36% (about 4 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 30, 14:20 UTC. It's up 2.5 points in the last 24 hours.

Google 36% ▲ 2.5 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 30, 14:20 UTC
  • Google 36% +2.5
  • Anthropic 28% −0.5
  • Meta 14% +1.5
  • Z.ai 5.3% +1
  • MiniMax 4.7% −1.6
  • Moonshot 4.4% −10
  • Alibaba 4% —
  • OpenAI 4% —
Traded today$7K
Traded in all$27K
Favourite, 7 days+5 pts

Google, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 22Oct 3036%

Oct 23: 31% · Oct 24: 40% · Oct 25: 39% · Oct 26: 39% · Oct 27: 39% · Oct 28: 36% · Oct 29: 38% · Oct 30: 36%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
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