The odds
as of Nov 1, 21:14 UTC- December 31 1.8% —
- November 30 1.3% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
December 31, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 25: 2.1% · Oct 26: 2.1% · Oct 27: 2% · Oct 28: 2.1% · Oct 29: 2.1% · Oct 30: 2% · Oct 31: 1.8% · Nov 1: 1.8%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization officially declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern covering plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only a determination that constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern under the International Health Regulations will qualify. Other designations will not be considered, including the convening of an Emergency Committee, a Disease Outbreak News publication, a grade assigned under the WHO Emergency Response Framework, and a characterization of the outbreak as a pandemic.
A Public Health Emergency of International Concern already in effect at market creation does not qualify; the declaration must occur between market creation and the specified date.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗