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PolymarketCloses March 17, 2027

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Decision in March?

25 bps increase leads at 54% (about 5 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Nov 4, 05:17 UTC. It's up 14 points in the last 24 hours.

25 bps increase 54% ▲ 14 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 4, 05:17 UTC
  • 25 bps increase 54% +14
  • No Change 40% +0.5
  • 50+ bps increase 3.9% −3.5
  • 25 bps decrease 1.1% −14
  • 50+ bps decrease <1% —
Traded today$5K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days+6.5 pts

25 bps increase, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 30Nov 453%

Oct 30: 42% · Oct 31: 50% · Nov 1: 43% · Nov 2: 39% · Nov 3: 38% · Nov 4: 53%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the March 2027 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its March 2027 meeting, scheduled for March 17, 2027, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its March 2027 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Settlement sources: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events

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