Moving
World's best restaurant in 2026? Asador Etxebarri 6% ▼−73Willem II Tilburg vs. SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 95% ▲+57Napoli vs Roma Napoli 89% ▲+55SSC Napoli vs. AS Roma SSC Napoli 87% ▲+53Wagner vs Duquesne Wagner 70% ▲+53Will Claude go down on __ days in October? <5 31% ▼−51Verizon postpaid phone net additions in Q3 Above 75 thousand 73% ▲+50Slavia Prague vs Mlada Boleslav Tie 32% ▼−49Dutch Bros Foot Traffic in October Above 103 62% ▲+47University at Albany vs Rhode Island University at Albany 85% ▲+45Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? Corey Lewandowski 59% ▼−40Cornell vs Brown Brown 9% ▼−40Brengle vs McDonald Ella McDonald 79% ▲+38FC Alverca vs. FC Arouca FC Arouca 63% ▲+36
PolymarketCloses June 30, 2027

Next Muse Spark (1.4+): Text Arena Debut?

A ladder on one number: the likeliest rung is 1480+ at 55% on Polymarket, as of Oct 24, 17:19 UTC. It's down 6 points in the last 24 hours.

1480+ 55% ▼ 6 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 24, 17:19 UTC
  • 1480+ 55% −6
  • 1490+ 50% −1.5
  • 1500+ 41% −5
  • 1510+ 18% +2.5

A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$511
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days−26 pts

1480+, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 16Oct 2455%

Oct 17: 81% · Oct 18: 78% · Oct 19: 65% · Oct 20: 71% · Oct 21: 68% · Oct 22: 56% · Oct 23: 65% · Oct 24: 55%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Meta Muse Spark model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Settlement sources: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

See it on Polymarket ↗

Tech & science

More markets like this

All →