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PolymarketCloses April 19, 2027

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

Marine Le Pen leads at 91% (about 9 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC
  • Marine Le Pen 91% —
  • Édouard Philippe 45% —
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon 43% —
  • David Lisnard 12% —
  • Gabriel Attal 7.1% +1.6
  • Bruno Retailleau 6.7% +2.4
  • François Hollande 6.4% —
  • Jordan Bardella 5% —

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$24K
Traded in all$266K
Favourite, 7 days+1 pts

Marine Le Pen, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 591%

Sep 28: 90% · Sep 29: 89% · Sep 30: 89% · Oct 1: 90% · Oct 2: 91% · Oct 3: 91% · Oct 4: 91% · Oct 5: 91%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
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