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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?

The market puts it at 11% — a long shot, about one in 10 — on Polymarket, as of Oct 24, 17:19 UTC. It's up 0.5 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 11% ▲ 0.5 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 24, 17:19 UTC
  • Chance of yes 11% +0.5
Traded today$600
Traded in all$144K
Yes, 7 days−1 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 16Oct 2411%

Oct 17: 12% · Oct 18: 13% · Oct 19: 9.5% · Oct 20: 11% · Oct 21: 10% · Oct 22: 10% · Oct 23: 8.5% · Oct 24: 11%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mahmoud Abbas ceases to be President of the Palestinian National Authority for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mahmoud Abbas's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian National Authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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