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PolymarketCloses November 4, 2026

Iowa Senate Election Winner

Ashley Hinson (R) leads at 57% (about 6 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 10:30 UTC.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 10:30 UTC
  • Ashley Hinson (R) 57% —
  • Josh Turek (D) 43% —
Traded today$9K
Traded in all$728K
Favourite, 7 days−1 pts

Ashley Hinson (R), the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 557%

Sep 28: 57% · Sep 29: 59% · Sep 30: 59% · Oct 1: 59% · Oct 2: 57% · Oct 3: 56% · Oct 4: 57% · Oct 5: 57%

The same question on Kalshi

Polymarket57%Ashley Hinson (R)
1 pt gap
Kalshi56%Ashley Hinson →

Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Kalshi's number is as of Oct 5, 10:30 UTC.

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
See it on Polymarket ↗

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