The odds
as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC- Ashley Hinson 56% −1
- Josh Turek 44% −1
Traded today$106K
Traded in all$4.0M
Favourite, 7 days−1 pts
Ashley Hinson, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 59% · Sep 29: 59% · Sep 30: 60% · Oct 1: 57% · Oct 2: 56% · Oct 3: 56% · Oct 4: 56% · Oct 5: 56%
The same question on Polymarket
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Ashley Hinson; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Iowa for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Settlement sources: United States Congress
See it on Kalshi ↗