Moving
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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Grok 5 released by...?

December 31 leads at 17% (about 2 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 30, 14:20 UTC. It's down 13 points in the last 24 hours.

December 31 17% ▼ 13 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 30, 14:20 UTC
  • December 31 17% −13
  • November 30 3% −8.5
  • October 31 <1% —

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$2K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days−20 pts

December 31, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 22Oct 3017%

Oct 23: 37% · Oct 24: 39% · Oct 25: 40% · Oct 26: 42% · Oct 27: 39% · Oct 28: 32% · Oct 29: 28% · Oct 30: 17%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify. Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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