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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?

The market puts it at 2.4% — a very long shot — on Polymarket, as of Oct 20, 12:34 UTC.

Yes 2.4%

The odds

as of Oct 20, 12:34 UTC
  • Chance of yes 2.4% —
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$1.4M
Yes, 7 days−3 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 12Oct 202%

Oct 13: 4% · Oct 14: 4% · Oct 15: 3.3% · Oct 16: 2.4% · Oct 17: 2.4% · Oct 18: 2.4% · Oct 19: 2.3% · Oct 20: 2.4%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cilia Flores is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Cilia Flores is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Cilia Flores is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Cilia Flores to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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