The odds
as of Oct 24, 17:19 UTC- United Kingdom 12% −2
- Japan 5.9% —
- India 3% —
- China 2.9% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$179K
Favourite, 7 days−2 pts
United Kingdom, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 17: 14% · Oct 19: 14% · Oct 20: 14% · Oct 21: 14% · Oct 22: 13% · Oct 23: 14% · Oct 24: 12%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, United Kingdom; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If United Kingdom has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The exact dataset for United Kingdom is GDP, Real, Seasonally Adjusted, Domestic Currency from the IMF.
Settlement sources: IMF
See it on Kalshi ↗