The odds
as of Oct 9, 22:25 UTC- Above 80,000 jobs 98% —
- Above 81,000 jobs 97% +1
- Above 82,000 jobs 95% +3
- Above 83,000 jobs 92% +5
- Above 84,000 jobs 67% +1
- Above 85,000 jobs 28% +1
- Above 86,000 jobs 12% −1
- Above 87,000 jobs 8.5% −3
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$105K
Traded in all$431K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
Above 80,000 jobs, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 2: 98% · Oct 3: 98% · Oct 4: 98% · Oct 5: 98% · Oct 6: 98% · Oct 7: 98% · Oct 8: 98% · Oct 9: 98%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 80,000 jobs; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If BLS reports Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 is above 80,000 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is All Employees: Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing in Washington (NAICS 3364), measured in thousands of jobs. The officially published BLS annual-average figure will be used rather than independently averaging monthly values. Subsequent revisions after determination will not affect resolution.
Settlement sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics
See it on Kalshi ↗