The odds
as of Nov 4, 17:15 UTC- At least 1% 93% +2
- At least 1.5% 72% —
- At least 2% 10% −37
- At least 2.5% 15% −24
- At least 3% 4.5% −28
- At least 4% 1% −9
- At least 5% 1% −5
- At least 6% 1% −4
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$16K
Traded in all$27K
Favourite, 7 days+0.5 pts
At least 1%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 28: 93% · Oct 29: 97% · Oct 30: 97% · Oct 31: 94% · Nov 1: 94% · Nov 2: 96% · Nov 3: 85% · Nov 4: 85%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, At least 1%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is 1% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. The percentage is based on the first round of voting.
Settlement sources: Alaska Division of Elections
See it on Kalshi ↗