The odds
as of Oct 6, 08:34 UTC- Before Jan 21, 2029 26% +5
- Before Jan 2028 20% +2
- Before Jan 2027 7.3% +3.3
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$349K
Favourite, 7 days+3.5 pts
Before Jan 21, 2029, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 22% · Sep 29: 24% · Oct 1: 21% · Oct 2: 22% · Oct 3: 22% · Oct 4: 22% · Oct 5: 21% · Oct 6: 26%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 21, 2029; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the United States gains control of any territory outside its sovereignty as of Issuance before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement by the United States and the entity that controls the territory that it will happen is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. The territory must come under formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, where it was not previously. Merely leasing a given part in territory – for example, setting up a military base on leased territory – is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
Settlement sources: The New York Times
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