The odds
as of Nov 4, 05:17 UTC- Before Jan 1, 2027 64% −3
- Before Jan 1, 2028 50% −36
- Before Jul 1, 2027 29% −48
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days+0.5 pts
Before Jan 1, 2027, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 28: 64% · Oct 29: 65% · Oct 30: 65% · Oct 31: 65% · Nov 1: 63% · Nov 2: 63% · Nov 3: 70% · Nov 4: 66%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 1, 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Donald Trump and Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin meet in person together in the same trilateral meeting after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin must all be physically present and participate together in the same trilateral meeting. Separate bilateral meetings, delegation or envoy talks, remote participation, and mere co-attendance without interaction do not qualify. A documented pull-aside, sideline, or informal meeting of only the three leaders qualifies. A greeting, handshake, group photo, or exchange that takes place only within a larger session, such as an APEC or G20 leaders' session, does not qualify.
Settlement sources: The White House; Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China; President of Russia; the Associated Press; Reuters; The New York Times; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal
See it on Kalshi ↗