The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Before Jan 1, 2027 4.2% —
- Before Aug 1, 2026 1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$18K
Traded in all$671K
Favourite, 7 days+1.4 pts
Before Jan 1, 2027, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 2.8% · Sep 29: 2.8% · Sep 30: 2.9% · Oct 1: 2.9% · Oct 2: 2.9% · Oct 3: 2.7% · Oct 4: 4.1% · Oct 5: 4.1%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 1, 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Physical presence within the geographic boundaries of the area is required. Flying over without landing, layovers during which the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual or remote appearances, future visit plans, or (unless explicitly specified) presence in adjacent international waters or solely within embassy or consulate grounds do NOT constitute a visit. International airports are considered within the boundaries of their host jurisdiction. A visit that began before the specified time period and is ongoing as of its start does not count; however, if the person departs and re-enters the area during the time period, the re-entry constitutes a new visit and does count.
Settlement sources: The Guardian; local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in ; Donald Trump; official government sources of Iran; official representatives or offices of Donald Trump; The New York Times; the Associated Press; Reuters; Politico; Semafor; The Information; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; CNN; Fox News; MSNBC; CNBC
See it on Kalshi ↗