The odds
as of Nov 1, 13:14 UTC- Oct 31 95% +24
- Nov 1 17% +7
- Not this weekend (Oct 30-Nov 1) 9% −20
- Oct 30 5% −4
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$27K
Traded in all$36K
Favourite, 7 days+25 pts
Oct 31, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 26: 70% · Oct 27: 65% · Oct 28: 1% · Oct 29: 30% · Oct 30: 33% · Oct 31: 96% · Nov 1: 95%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Oct 31; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Donald Trump golfs on Oct 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved A day counts if Roll Call Factbase's presidential calendar feed (https://media-cdn.factba.se/rss/json/trump/calendar-full.json) shows its "golf" value as true. A day also counts if a White House pool report or a Getty Images, Reuters Connect or AP Photos image unambiguously shows Donald Trump playing golf that day. Markets may resolve as soon as a day counts. Otherwise they resolve at expiration, 10:00 AM ET two days after the day (after Sunday for Not this weekend).
Settlement sources: Roll Call; White House pool reports; AP Photos; Reuters Connect; Getty Images
See it on Kalshi ↗