Moving
Mistral Large 4: Text Arena Debut? 1430+ 6.5% ▼−75Arakawa / Nishimoto vs Hosoki / Sato Arakawa / Nishimoto 96% ▲+63Baycurrent Classic End of Round 2 Leader Jacob Bridgeman 74% ▲+62Samsung Lions vs SSG Landers SSG Landers 63% ▲+57Baycurrent Classic: Top 10 Finishers Max Homa 73% ▲+54What will Jynxzi, Ron or Los be eliminated by? Fire (again) 3.4% ▼−50Kosovo vs Austria Kosovo 4.5% ▼−50OpenRouter token usage in Oct 5–11 Above 164 T tokens 77% ▲+42Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? Cassidy Hutchinson 48% ▲+39Bank of Mexico Decision in November? No change 56% ▼−39Sakamoto vs Rublev Rei Sakamoto 66% ▲+38Buse / Vallejo vs Andreozzi / Guinard Ignacio Buse / Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 58% ▲+38Sasnovich vs Kalieva Elvina Kalieva 62% ▲+35ATP Shanghai Winner Carlos Alcaraz 35% ▲+35
KalshiCloses November 14, 2026

Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?

On Nov 22, 2027 leads at 76% (about 8 in ten) on Kalshi, as of Oct 9, 05:28 UTC. It's down 4.5 points in the last 24 hours.

On Nov 22, 2027 76% ▼ 4.5 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 9, 05:28 UTC
  • On Nov 22, 2027 76% −4.5
  • On Nov 16, 2026 74% −25
  • On Mar 15, 2027 64% —
  • On Dec 14, 2026 61% —
  • On Nov 16, 2026 0% —
  • On Dec 10, 2026 0% —
  • On Mar 13, 2027 0% —
  • On Nov 19, 2027 0% —

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$1K
Traded in all$58K
Favourite, 7 days+4.5 pts

On Nov 22, 2027, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 1Oct 971%

Oct 2: 72% · Oct 3: 72% · Oct 4: 71% · Oct 5: 70% · Oct 6: 70% · Oct 7: 70% · Oct 8: 71% · Oct 9: 71%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, On Nov 22, 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If, as of the end of Nov 22, 2027, a hemp-derived beverage enclosed in a 12-fluid-ounce container that contains exactly 3 milligrams of naturally produced delta-9 THC (and no other cannabinoids) is treated under federal law as lawful to sell, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying for this Contract evaluates the federal legal status of a beverage that: is enclosed for retail sale in a single sealed 12-fluid-ounce (355-milliliter) container; contains exactly 3 milligrams of tetrahydrocannabinol in that container, all of which is delta-9 tetrahydrocannabinol naturally produced by, and derived directly from, a Cannabis sativa L. plant qualifying as hemp under 7 U.S.C. § 1639o as in effect on January 1, 2025, and none of which is synthesized or manufactured outside the plant; and contains no tetrahydrocannabinolic acid, no other cannabinoid of any kind, and no other substance listed in any schedule of the Controlled Substances Act. The market resolves to Yes if, as of the end of Nov 22, 2027, at least one of conditions (a) through (d) is satisfied: (a) Statutory and regulatory status: Under the federal statutes and federal regulations in legal effect, the beverage is not a controlled substance in any schedule of the Controlled Substances Act. (b) Judicial relief: One or more orders of a federal court of the United States are in full force and effect that bar the enforcement of the amendments made by Section 781 of Public Law 119-37, or of the CSA’s treatment of the beverage as a controlled substance, with respect to the entire class of products and with effect throughout the United States. (c) Funding prohibition: Enacted federal legislation prohibits the use of federal funds to implement, administer, carry out, or enforce the amendments made by Section 781, or the Controlled Substances Act, with respect to the retail sale of the beverage throughout the United States. (d) Express authorization: Enacted federal legislation expressly authorizes or makes lawful the retail sale, in interstate commerce, of the beverage. Only statutes, regulations, and court orders in legal effect as of the end of Nov 22, 2027 shall be considered. None of the following, standing alone, is sufficient to resolve to Yes: State, local, territorial, and tribal laws; Federal enforcement discretion, deprioritization policies, or non-binding agency guidance; Proposed rules; Federal court orders granting relief limited to particular parties, plaintiffs, products, sellers, or geographic areas; Funding prohibitions that have lapsed or expired; and Regulation of the beverage under any body of federal law other than the CSA (e.g., FDA food and beverage regulation).

Settlement sources: United States Government Publishing Office; PACER; United States Code; Federal Register

See it on Kalshi ↗

Politics & elections

More markets like this

All →