The odds
as of Oct 10, 15:23 UTC- Chance of yes 8.5% +4.5
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$79K
Yes, 7 days+6 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 2: 2.2% · Oct 4: 2.5% · Oct 5: 2.3% · Oct 6: 3.5% · Oct 8: 2.3%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf the President or Congress waives or ends income taxes for any year on persons earning less than $150,000 a year before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This includes an executive order or action directing income taxes for households earning less than $150,000 be waived (or equivalently, that the income tax is foregone, eliminated, or nullified) for any year, or a bill becoming law which reduces the federal income tax to 0% for those earning less than $150,000 for any year.
Settlement sources: The New York Times; the Associated Press; Reuters; Axios; Politico; Semafor; The Information; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; ABC; CBS; CNN; Fox News; MSNBC
See it on Kalshi ↗