The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Before 2027 4.2% —
- Before August <1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$2.6M
Favourite, 7 days−1.7 pts
Before 2027, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 5.4% · Sep 29: 5.5% · Sep 30: 4.9% · Oct 1: 4.7% · Oct 2: 4.1% · Oct 3: 3.9% · Oct 4: 4.1% · Oct 5: 4.1%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification (12/18/25): For this market to resolve to Yes, a Source Agency must report that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue. A Source Agency writing that someone (e.g., the President) claimed the payments are from tariff revenue does not satisfy this requirement. The Source Agency must report it as fact, not as a claim made by another party. For example, "Millions of Americans received payments this week, which were funded by tariff revenue" would qualify, whereas "Trump said the payments received yesterday are funded by tariff revenue" would not qualify.
Settlement sources: The New York Times; the Associated Press; Bloomberg News; Reuters; Axios; Politico; Semafor; The Information; The Wall Street Journal; CBS; CNN; Fox News; MSNBC; NBC; The Guardian; South China Morning Post; CBC; ABC; BBC; The Washington Post; The Verge; ABC News Australia
See it on Kalshi ↗