The odds
as of Oct 17, 23:18 UTC- Above 260 95% +4
- Above 270 89% —
- Above 280 80% —
- Above 290 55% —
- Above 300 40% —
- Above 310 28% —
- Above 320 19% —
- Above 330 8.5% −7
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$24K
Traded in all$28K
Favourite, 7 days+6.5 pts
Above 260, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 16: 95% · Oct 17: 95%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 260; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the number of transit calls through the Suez Canal as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 260 from Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗