The odds
as of Nov 4, 05:17 UTC- Republican party 90% −9
- Democratic party 1.5% −1
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$45K
Favourite, 7 days−5.5 pts
Republican party, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 28: 96% · Oct 29: 96% · Oct 30: 97% · Oct 31: 99% · Nov 1: 99% · Nov 2: 99% · Nov 3: 99% · Nov 4: >99%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Republican party; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Republican party wins the Iowa State Senate in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Winning is defined as holding more seats than any other party two weeks after the State Senate is sat for the session following the election. If both parties are tied, then the market resolves to No. This market is also eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Settlement sources: Iowa Senate; The New York Times
See it on Kalshi ↗