The odds
as of Oct 23, 04:27 UTC- Republican party 92% +4
- Democratic party 9.5% −2
Traded today$26K
Traded in all$29K
Favourite, 7 days+7.5 pts
Republican party, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 16: 85% · Oct 17: 85% · Oct 18: 85% · Oct 19: 85% · Oct 20: 85% · Oct 21: 85% · Oct 22: 89% · Oct 23: 92%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Republican party; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Republican party wins the Iowa State House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Winning is defined as holding more seats than any other party two weeks after the State House is sat for the session following the election. If both parties are tied, then the market resolves to No. This market is also eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Settlement sources: Iowa House of Representatives; The New York Times
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