The odds
as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC- Cuba 4.5% —
- Venezuela 2.2% −0.5
- Puerto Rico 1.8% —
- Greenland 1.6% —
- Canada 1.5% —
- Guam <1% —
- Colombia <1% —
- District of Columbia <1% —
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$1.9M
Favourite, 7 daysunch
Cuba, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 4.5% · Sep 29: 3.5% · Sep 30: 3.5% · Oct 1: 4.5% · Oct 2: 4.5% · Oct 3: 4.5% · Oct 4: 4.5% · Oct 5: 4.5%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Cuba; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the 51st state is any part of Cuba before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: Library of Congress
See it on Kalshi ↗