Moving

Montenegro vs Armenia: Correct Score Draw 0-0 71% ▲+67 Romania vs Sweden: Correct Score Sweden wins 1-0 68% ▲+59 Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place Augusto Cury 97% ▲+58 Italy vs Turkiye: Correct Score Italy wins 2-1 68% ▲+54 Antigua and Barbuda vs Aruba Aruba 29% ▼−52 Montenegro vs Armenia Tie 72% ▲+50 Italy vs. Türkiye - Exact Score Italy 2 - 1 Türkiye 61% ▲+50 Romania vs. Sweden - Exact Score Romania 0 - 1 Sweden 59% ▲+50 Ukraine vs Hungary: Correct Score Draw 1-1 64% ▲+50 France vs Belgium: Correct Score France wins 2-1 60% ▲+50 Cordoba vs Tenerife Cordoba 94% ▲+46 Tyreek Hill's Next Team Kansas City 81% ▲+46 Marton vs Ilie Isabella Marton 95% ▲+45 Leston vs Claro Tomas Jordi Leston 90% ▲+44

KalshiCloses January 1, 2030

Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?

The market puts it at 27% — about 3 in ten — on Kalshi, as of Oct 5, 20:27 UTC. It's up 13 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 20:27 UTC

Chance of yes 27% +13

Traded today$523

Traded in all$94K

Yes, 7 days+2 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Kalshi price

Sep 28: 25% · Sep 29: 26% · Sep 30: 26% · Oct 1: 16% · Oct 2: 16% · Oct 3: 16% · Oct 4: 15% · Oct 5: 25%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word

If SpaceX lands anything on Mars before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources: SpaceX; The New York Times

See it on Kalshi ↗

Tech & science

More markets like this

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

$245K traded today

Best AI at the end of 2026?

▲ +0.6 pts 24h

$176K traded today

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

▼ −4 pts 24h

$107K traded today

Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 2028

▼ −1 pts 24h

$80K traded today

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Before Jan 20, 2029

$55K traded today

Best AI in Oct 2026?

▼ −2 pts 24h

$32K traded today