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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

The market puts it at 28% — about 3 in ten — on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC. It's up 7.5 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC
  • Chance of yes 28% +7.5
Traded today$29K
Traded in all$645K
Yes, 7 days+14 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 528%

Sep 28: 13% · Sep 29: 9% · Sep 30: 11% · Oct 1: 14% · Oct 2: 23% · Oct 3: 21% · Oct 4: 25% · Oct 5: 28%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Spain's Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, is removed from power for any length of time between December 2, 2025 and the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Spain within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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