The odds
as of Nov 2, 14:19 UTC- Above 6 87% —
- Above 7 91% +3
- Above 8 73% −6
- Above 9 37% −17
- Above 10 11% —
- Above 11 3% —
- Above 12 2% +1
- Above 13 1.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$22K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days+9 pts
Above 7, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 29: 80% · Oct 30: 87% · Oct 31: 89% · Nov 1: 88% · Nov 2: 91%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 7; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If SpaceX has more than 7 launches in Nov 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: SpaceX
See it on Kalshi ↗