The odds
as of Oct 5, 10:30 UTC- Chance of yes 7% +3
Traded today$975
Traded in all$34K
Yes, 7 days+2.5 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 4.5% · Sep 29: 4.5% · Sep 30: 4.5% · Oct 1: 5% · Oct 2: 6.5% · Oct 3: 5.5% · Oct 4: 7% · Oct 5: 7%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf ALL of the following occur for the 2026 midterms: U.S. House: Republicans win 220 or more seats, U.S. Senate: Republicans hold 55 or more seats, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: U.S. House (SEATSCONGRESS), U.S. Senate (SEATSCONGRESS).
Settlement sources: U.S. Congress
See it on Kalshi ↗