The odds
as of Nov 4, 05:17 UTC- 1 77% +7
- 2 26% −7
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$111K
Favourite, 7 days+11 pts
1, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 27: 67% · Oct 28: 67% · Oct 29: 72% · Oct 30: 67% · Oct 31: 68% · Nov 1: 69% · Nov 2: 68% · Nov 4: 71%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, 1; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If 1 reconciliation bill becomes law from Nov 25, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: Library of Congress
See it on Kalshi ↗