The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance 16% +15
- JD Vance defeats Kamala Harris 9% +8
- Gavin Newsom defeats Marco Rubio 8.5% +13
- JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom 8% —
- AOC defeats JD Vance 7.5% —
- Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance 6.5% —
- JD Vance defeats AOC 4% +2
- Marco Rubio defeats AOC 3.5% —
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$125K
Favourite, 7 days+5.5 pts
Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 8.5% · Sep 29: 8% · Sep 30: 10% · Oct 1: 8.5% · Oct 2: 8% · Oct 3: 10% · Oct 4: 9% · Oct 5: 16%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Democratic Nominee (PRESNOM), Republican Nominee (PRESNOM), Presidential Winner (PRESPERSON). All conditions must be satisfied the 2028 presidential election.
Settlement sources: Office of the Presidency
See it on Kalshi ↗