The odds
as of Oct 5, 21:23 UTC- Above 175 88% —
- Above 200 15% −20
- Above 225 7.5% +3
- Above 250 3.5% +2
- Above 275 1.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$23K
Traded in all$35K
Favourite, 7 days+38 pts
Above 175, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 2: 85% · Oct 3: 88% · Oct 4: 88% · Oct 5: 88%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 175; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the number of transit calls through the Panama Canal as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 175 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗