The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Chance of yes 5.3% —
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$2.1M
Yes, 7 days−0.7 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 5.9% · Sep 29: 5.9% · Sep 30: 5.7% · Oct 1: 5.4% · Oct 2: 5.7% · Oct 3: 5.3% · Oct 4: 5.2% · Oct 5: 5.3%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf Reza Pahlavi has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Physical presence within the geographic boundaries of the area is required. Flying over without landing, layovers during which the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual or remote appearances, future visit plans, or (unless explicitly specified) presence in adjacent international waters or solely within embassy or consulate grounds do NOT constitute a visit. International airports are considered within the boundaries of their host jurisdiction. A visit that began before the specified time period and is ongoing as of its start does not count; however, if the person departs and re-enters the area during the time period, the re-entry constitutes a new visit and does count.
Settlement sources: The Guardian; local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in Iran; Reza Pahlavi; official government sources of Iran; official representatives or offices of Reza Pahlavi; The New York Times; the Associated Press; Reuters; Politico; Semafor; The Information; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; CNN; Fox News; MSNBC; CNBC
See it on Kalshi ↗