The odds
as of Oct 6, 22:25 UTC- The Black Ball 47% +1
- The Invite 28% −3
- The Social Reckoning 27% —
- The Odyssey 15% −5
- Project Hail Mary 9% —
- Clarissa 5% —
- Saturn Return 5% —
- Toy Story 5 5% —
Traded today$738
Traded in all$30K
Favourite, 7 days+7.5 pts
The Black Ball, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 29: 40% · Sep 30: 39% · Oct 1: 40% · Oct 2: 42% · Oct 3: 41% · Oct 4: 42% · Oct 5: 42% · Oct 6: 47%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, The Black Ball; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If The Black Ball has won Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.
Settlement sources: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
See it on Kalshi ↗