The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Bad Bunny 14% −2
- Erling Haaland 14% −2
- Donald Trump 5.5% +1
- Savannah Guthrie 4.5% —
- Elon Musk 3.5% —
- Taylor Swift 1.5% —
- Timothée Chalamet 1.5% —
- Lionel Messi 1.5% —
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$1.6M
Favourite, 7 days+3 pts
Bad Bunny, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 13% · Sep 29: 13% · Sep 30: 12% · Oct 1: 13% · Oct 2: 12% · Oct 3: 11% · Oct 4: 17% · Oct 5: 14%
The same question on Polymarket
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Bad Bunny; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Bad Bunny is #1 search on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves based on the individual ranked #1 in the “People” section of Google’s official Year in Search 2026 – Global list. Google’s report includes multiple sections such as Searches, News, Passings, and People — only the People section applies to this market. If Liam Payne is #1 in “Searches” but Donald Trump is #1 in “People,” the market resolves Yes to Donald Trump. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Google. Any references Google, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Google and Kalshi.
Settlement sources: Google Trends
See it on Kalshi ↗