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KalshiCloses January 1, 2027

Will Mamdani tax billion-dollar incomes in 2026?

The market puts it at 5.1% — a long shot, about one in 19 — on Kalshi, as of Oct 10, 07:28 UTC. It's up 1 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 5.1% ▲ 1 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 10, 07:28 UTC
  • Chance of yes 5.1% +1
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$89K
Yes, 7 days−1 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 2Oct 105%

Oct 3: 5.2% · Oct 4: 5.1% · Oct 5: 5.3% · Oct 6: 5.5% · Oct 7: 5.6% · Oct 8: 5.4% · Oct 9: 5.7% · Oct 10: 5.2%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
If a law authorizing a new personal income tax bracket or surcharge on incomes over $1 billion for New York City residents has become law in New York City before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Laws passed by New York State are encompassed within the Payout Criterion if they apply to or govern New York City. Enactment requires completion of all constitutional and legal requirements for the legislation to become binding law. For standard legislation requiring executive approval, this includes final passage by all required legislative bodies, executive signature OR becoming law despite executive inaction OR successful veto override, and satisfaction of any required waiting periods. For legislation not requiring executive approval, this includes final passage and completion of required waiting periods. For constitutional amendments, this includes passage with required supermajorities and completion of ratification processes. For executive orders, this includes official signature, publication in official government records, and legal effectiveness. Legislative passage without completed executive action, passage by only some required bodies, provisional passage, non-binding resolutions, and draft orders do not constitute enactment. Enactment occurs when all requirements are completed, regardless of pending judicial challenges.

Settlement sources: City of New York; the Office of Mayor of New York City; New York City Council; major newspapers in New York City; the Federal Register; The White House; The United States Congress; relevant governmental agency in geography; The New York Times; the Associated Press; Bloomberg News; Reuters; Axios; Politico; Semafor; The Information; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; ABC; CBS; CNN; Fox News; MSNBC; NBC

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