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KalshiCloses January 1, 2027

Will NYC ban horse-drawn carriages in 2026?

The market puts it at 95% — about 9 in ten — on Kalshi, as of Oct 14, 17:21 UTC. It's up 29 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 95% ▲ 29 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 14, 17:21 UTC
  • Chance of yes 95% +29
Traded today$27K
Traded in all$27K
Yes, 7 days+41 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 9Oct 1492%

Oct 9: 68% · Oct 10: 67% · Oct 11: 71% · Oct 12: 70% · Oct 13: 52% · Oct 14: 92%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
If a law prohibiting the operation of horse-drawn carriages for hire has become law in New York City before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Enactment requires completion of all constitutional and legal requirements for the legislation to become binding law. Standard legislation requiring executive approval: final passage by all required legislative bodies, executive signature OR becoming law despite executive inaction OR successful veto override, and satisfaction of any required waiting periods Legislation not requiring executive approval: final passage and completion of required waiting periods Constitutional amendments: passage with required supermajorities and completion of ratification processes Executive orders: official signature, publication in official government records, and legal effectiveness The following do NOT constitute enactment: Legislative passage without completed executive action Passage by only some required bodies Provisional passage Non-binding resolutions Draft orders Enactment occurs when all requirements are completed, regardless of pending judicial challenges. A law counts once enacted even if its prohibition takes effect after Jan 1, 2027, such as a phase-out ending carriage operations in 2028. A qualifying law prohibits horse-drawn carriages for hire (horse drawn cabs) from operating, either throughout New York City or in Central Park. Laws passed by New York State count if they apply to New York City. Heat, weather, route, hours, rest or training rules, hitching posts, a cap or freeze on licenses, and a study or task force do NOT qualify unless the law also prohibits carriages from operating.

Settlement sources: New York City Council; Office of the Mayor of New York City; The New York Times; the Associated Press

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