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KalshiCloses January 1, 2045

Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Romania?

Leonardo Badea leads at 39% (about 4 in ten) on Kalshi, as of Oct 5, 19:24 UTC. It's down 7.5 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 19:24 UTC
  • Leonardo Badea 39% −7.5
  • Delia Velculescu 34% —
  • Luca Niculescu 32% —
  • Alexandru Rogobete 32% —
  • Sorin Grindeanu 24% —
  • Alexandru Nazare 17% −19
  • Dacian Cioloș 7% —
  • Ionuț Dumitru 6% —
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$58K
Favourite, 7 days−7.5 pts

Leonardo Badea, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 5Oct 548%

The same question on Polymarket

Kalshi39%Leonardo Badea
21 pt gap
Polymarket60%Luca Niculescu →

Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 5, 19:24 UTC.

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Leonardo Badea; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Leonardo Badea, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources: The New York Times

See it on Kalshi ↗

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