The odds
as of Oct 6, 01:39 UTC- United States 59% +1.5
- China 31% −0.6
- Russia <1% —
- India <1% —
- European Space Agency <1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$165K
Favourite, 7 days+4.4 pts
United States, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 29: 55% · Sep 30: 55% · Oct 1: 56% · Oct 2: 56% · Oct 3: 56% · Oct 4: 56% · Oct 5: 59% · Oct 6: 55%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, United States; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If United States is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes. If Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) or another US-based company launches a manned mission to the Moon first then the market resolves to Yes for the United States.
Settlement sources: The New York Times
See it on Kalshi ↗