The odds
as of Oct 12, 21:22 UTC- Above 10.5M 78% +4.5
- Above 10.9M 78% −6
- Above 11.5M 68% −10
- Above 12M 64% —
- Above 12.6M 33% −9
- Above 13.1M 23% —
- Above 14.2M 7.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$44K
Favourite, 7 days−7.5 pts
Above 10.5M, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 10: 86% · Oct 11: 74% · Oct 12: 79%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 10.5M; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election is above 10500000, then the market resolves to Yes. The vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.
Settlement sources: California Secretary of State
See it on Kalshi ↗